The Stanford research, published this week, reveals that farmers in Europe will see crop yields affected as global temperatures rise, but that adaptation can help slow the decline of some crops.
For maize the impacts are expected to the tune of 10%, the research shows. Farmers of these crops have already seen yields of these crops slow since 1980 as temperatures have risen. Though economics and other factors have also played a role.
Moore, a student in the Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, described the results as somewhat surprising because Europe is comparatively cool. "You might think it would benefit from moderate amounts of warming," she said. "Our next step was to actually measure the potential of European farmers to adapt to these impacts.
Moore and Lobell analysed yield and profit records from thousands of farms between 1989 and 2009, from the European Union's annual Farmer Accountancy Data Network survey. Combining detailed climate records with the farm data, they were able to understand how yields and profits have changed over time. By comparing yields in warmer and cooler parts of Europe, they could predict how adaptation may help European farmers in the coming decades.
According to the analysis, maize has the highest adaptation potential. Moore and Lobell predict that farmers could reduce yield losses by as much as 87 % through long-term adaptation.
As Moore pointed out, three key areas of uncertainty make it difficult to predict the future of crop yields in Europe. Most scientists focus on the uncertainty around future climate conditions, but the Stanford team found that the biggest issues are often how quickly farmers in Europe will adapt to climate change (adaptation uncertainty) and how crop yields will respond to anthropogenic climate change (response uncertainty), which will not only entail a warming of overall temperatures, but also a higher concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, shifting rain patterns and more extreme weather events.